There’s this Vietnamese restaurant in my neighborhood that’s really, really tasty. I go pretty often, especially considering that I can get a full meal for just a five-dollar bill.

Aside: You know what else you can get for five dollars? My book, The Late Round Quarterback.

I told some friends about it, and have noticed that people were giving it rave reviews on various food rating sites. Evidently the recommendations were working. I drive by the restaurant almost every day, and quite slowly, the place has become a hot spot.

I was craving it just the other night, so I ventured over to the joint to get some of their delicious Pho. I walked in, and had never been at this particular establishment with it so packed. “Whatever, though,” I thought. “I’ll wait for my Pho.”

Approaching the front counter to order, I noticed a change in the menu placed adequately on a side wall. That five-dollar meal had turned into a seven-dollar one. “No big deal,” I thought to myself. “It’s just two dollars.”

But then I realized something. The allure with this place – that hole-in-the wall, cheap value meal – was lost. The recommendations from the public had genuinely altered the prices of the food on the menu. I still got my Pho because it’s so good, but I remembered the days when nobody even knew about this place – when I could get a five-dollar meal.

Being a fantasy football enthusiast, I recognized that this Vietnamese restaurant is just like a sleeper in the fake sport.

The term “sleeper” is a vague one. Some think that a sleeper is simply a player that is a “value pick” in a draft, while others seem to use the term to describe players that are going very late in drafts that have starter potential.

Whatever your definition is, it’s clear that a sleeper exists when the general public is not aware of the potential a player has. And given this definition, when the general public becomes aware, a sleeper “wakes up” and becomes just another player in your draft. He no longer holds the same value. You may like him, and still draft him, but you’re paying a higher price to get him. You’re doing the same thing I did with the delicious Pho at the Vietnamese restaurant.

But eventually, if the price of my favorite Pho keeps rising, I won’t get it anymore. Seven dollars is fine, but if it doubles in price, I have better value options. There are other places to get Pho, after all.

That’s what we’re seeing with plenty of guys in the fantasy football landscape. At one point, they held fantastic value. They were a five-dollar meal. But now? Well, now some of these players are becoming valueless.

All graphs and charts are based on standard scoring 12-team leagues. The ADP charts and values can be found at www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com.

Kevin Smith

Reason for his rise in ADP
Smith is the only healthy, legitimate Lions’ running back right now. Jahvid Best has already been placed on the PUP, and Mikel Leshoure is not only coming off of a season ending injury, but is suspended for the first two games of 2012. Because of all of this news, Smith has jumped from a 14th to a late 6th-round choice.

Value Analysis
In a 12-team league, the 6th round is a high price for a player that could potentially be sharing carries on a pass-first team come Week 3. Some are Kevin Smith believers; he’s shown that he can be a very effective running back in the past. And that’s what makes this pick a high-reward one. When Smith is healthy as the Lions’ first-team back, he is a legitimate fantasy starter. If his ADP doesn’t rise any further, and the running back situation continues to favor him, then I can’t fault you for making a late 6th or early 7th round choice on Smith. He has massive upside, even in that offense.

Randall Cobb

Reason for his rise in ADP
We saw a glimpse last year of what Cobb is capable of doing. While there’s not necessarily a reason to pinpoint his 3-round ADP rise, I do believe a lot of it has to do with classic word of mouth. He’s quite possibly the most popular sleeper this season, and with more people reading fantasy analysis in August, Cobb’s ADP has increased.

Value Analysis
Randall Cobb will more than likely emerge as the Packers’ slot receiver this season. And while Aaron Rodgers didn’t necessarily make his receivers outside of Jennings and Nelson very fantasy worthy last year, Cobb’s explosiveness makes him very attractive and sets him apart from the rest of that corp. I can’t expect WR1 numbers from Cobb like we saw from Jordy last season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Cobb cracks the top-30 or 35 at the position by season’s end. He’s most definitely worth taking in Round 11 in 12-team leagues.

Cedric Benson

Reason for his rise in ADP
Cedric Benson’s ADP rise is simple: He joined a team. He’s now in the mix to be the Packers’ primary running back, and because of this, he’s being drafted in the late-7th / early-8th round in 12-team leagues.

Value Analysis
Really? Are people sincerely buying into Cedric Benson on the Packers? I expect part of this ADP rise to be adrenaline-related. People love to make sexy picks when players join new teams. And while Cedric Benson has a great shot at becoming the primary back, I think the 7th round is much too valuable for a player that has under a 4 yards per attempt average over the last two seasons. Not only that, but there are some other running backs on the Packers that will surely steal some looks from the veteran.

Matt Ryan

Reason for his rise in ADP
Two words: Julio Jones. It’s clear that Matt Ryan’s first two pre-season games have contributed to his three round ADP jump. The Falcons have come out hot, showing off the talents of Julio Jones and their offense. And people are loving it.

Value Analysis
This is a tough one for me. First off, I’ve included Ryan on this list because Matt Ryan was a legitimate late-round quarterback in July. I had him ranked as the 7th best quarterback last month, and since then, I’ve jumped him up to the 6 spot. Does it mean I’m buying in to what the Falcons are doing? Kind of. I believe Ryan has an opportunity to do something special this year. But remember, we’ve said that plenty of times in the past, and that’s what worries me. I do expect the Falcons to run more of a pass heavy offense, but keep this in mind: The Falcons ranked 4th in the NFL last year in pass attempts.

I’m alright with Ryan’s current ADP. I think there’s some value for those of you that don’t follow my late-round quarterback philosophy. But if it rises anymore, and if he gets to the point where he’s being drafted close to someone like Matthew Stafford – stay away. It’s just not worth it.

Peyton Hillis

Reason for his rise in ADP
With the news that the Chiefs are going to potentially run the ball over 550 times this year, many started to get Hillis as a low-end RB2. His ADP rise has been gradual, which is interesting considering Jamaal Charles has proven to be back and healthy. I believe, similar to Randall Cobb, that a lot of it has to do with more people becoming exposed to what the Chiefs are going to do in 2012 under new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll.

Value Analysis
Well, you can definitely forget handcuffing Jamaal Charles. A mid-5th round ADP for Hillis is pretty high, but I still think it’s a fair one. The last time he and Daboll were together, Hillis broke out and was a top-5 fantasy running back. Hillis will surely be the goal-line back, which is an added incentive to get him. I still prefer Jamaal Charles (see why here), but think that both of them will be fantasy relevant this season. I don’t expect Hillis’ ADP to rise unless something happens to Charles, so consider a late-5th round choice in a 12-team standard league as the highest you’d pay for Hillis. And that’s still not awful value.

Austin Collie

Reason for his rise in ADP
Hmm…what happened on August 12th to spike Austin Collie’s ADP? Well, the world was introduced to Andrew Luck and the new Colts’ offense, and Collie caught 3 passes for 45 yards and a touchdown. He was Luck’s favorite target during the game.

Value Analysis
The late-9th round is still pretty good value for a talented receiver like Collie. When you get into the later rounds of a draft, you’re looking for players that can potentially become starters. You don’t want your 9th round pick to yield 9th round pick results. All he’d do is sit on your bench all year. You want a player that has potential to become a starter. There’s no better way than to get someone like Collie, who has proven to be a good receiver in the past, and is on an uncertain offense with potential upside. If he stays healthy, he could become Andrew Luck’s favorite target, and excel in Bruce Arians’ offense.

Written before Collie’s recent concussion.

Ryan Williams

Reason for his rise in ADP
While it’s been inconsistent, the general rise in Ryan Williams’ ADP can probably be credited to the lack of running back talent in Arizona. Let’s face it – Beanie Wells isn’t good. And it doesn’t help that he’s got a knee injury.

Value Analysis
His season-ending injury last year in the pre-season was sad to see, as Williams was set to get a good number of carries as a rookie. He looks to be back and healthy, and that’s great news for fantasy owners. Beanie Wells is easily one of the most inconsistent backs you’ll find. Last season, he had just two 100-plus yard rushing games. And earlier this season, he was having motivation issues. Given this, I think Ryan Williams is solid value that late in a draft.

Titus Young

Reason for his rise in ADP
Titus Young has jumped a whole round in ADP since July 20th. A lot of this has to do with his performance in training camp. Some of, however, could be due to the fact that the Lions’ throw the ball…a lot.

Value Analysis
Yes. Titus Young will solidify his role as the Lions’ number 2 receiver this season, and has been extremely impressive so far in camp. And while most people look at third-year receivers as breakout candidates, I’ll point you to my book so I can show you why second-year ones break out just as often. There’s not much to say other than to take a shot and get Titus in the late-7th round of a 12-team league. His ADP could easily rise even more over the next couple weeks, but I’m someone that’s high on the Lions’ second-year receiver. Go for him unless his ADP gets completely out of hand.

Jonathan Baldwin

Reason for his rise in ADP
Dwayne Bowe had been holding out, and with that, many have been exposed to the talents of Jonathan Baldwin. He’s expected to start opposite of Bowe, and with Matt Cassel back, there are high expectations for the second-year receiver out of Pitt.

Value Analysis
Being a Pitt graduate, I’ve watched a whole lot of Jonathan Baldwin. He’s a guy that can get high and fight for deep balls, but he also has had issues between the ears. That’s the downside. I do think, however, that he could be a great compliment to a receiver like Dwayne Bowe. And remember what I said about Titus Young? Yeah – Baldwin is a second-year wideout, too. He’s good value at the tail end of your draft.

Danny Amendola

Reason for his rise in ADP
Danny Amendola is back after missing nearly the entire 2011 season. And if you remember correctly, in 2010, he had 85 receptions on a mediocre Rams offense. After seeing him play at 100%, fantasy owners started drafting him.

Value Analysis
He’s Sam Bradford’s security blanket, and expected to be the number one receiver in St. Louis this year. While he’s not a typical number one receiver, Amendola is great out of the slot and is a must-have in PPR leagues. If his ADP remains the same, he’s a potential steal at the end of your fantasy draft. When you get someone this late, the only direction he can go is up. Amendola has low-end WR2 potential.

Jacquizz Rodgers

Reason for his rise in ADP
He, like Matt Ryan, is seeing the effects of two fantastic Falcons’ pre-season games. With the Falcons looking at a revamped offense, many believe Jacquizz Rodgers will play a major role in Atlanta this year.

Value Analysis
There’s some Maurice Jones-Drew in Jacquizz Rodgers. Michael Turner has already been said to be getting less carries this year, and the Falcons’ coaching staff have talked about Rodgers being a capable 3-down back. While I can’t believe that he can handle a full workload just yet, I do believe the Falcons will try to get him the ball this year on plenty of short passes and screens. His ADP could rise to the 7th round, but I’d still feel comfortable drafting him there.

Donald Brown

Reason for his rise in ADP
The rise in Donald Brown’s ADP can be credited to the Colts’ first pre-season game. That, combined with his starter status, makes him an attractive middle-round draft choice to many.

Value Analysis
When you look at the players being drafted around Brown, you see guys like Shonn Greene, Isaac Redman, Jonathan Stewart and Stevan Ridley. Of all these players, Brown would easily be my choice. He’s had a rough(ish) start to his career, but he’s never been the true feature back in the NFL. Last season he had an impressive 4.8 yards per carry on a poor offense, and got into the end zone 5 times. I expect him to be a RB2 by the end of the 2012 season.

 

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